Employment

Work Package lead: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)  

Module design

Calculation Flow & Input/ Output Matrix

The module design is described in a tree-like calculation flow and a matrix specifying interactions with other sectors or modules.

Find out more

Data & Assumptions

Representation of the economy

Overview of the data collected, gathered and presented. Metadata is also provided.

Find out more

 

Implementation

Timeline and progress documentation

A timeline and a flow visualization of the programmed module have been created to show progress and compare implementation to the module design

Find out more

Your feedback and comments are much appreciated, questions will be addressed rapidly.

Module design

The aim of the Employment module is to assess the impacts on employment of the scenario defined by the user.

Baseline Scenario

Using the Computable General Equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, a baseline scenario is simulated. The objective is to model the state of the economy if there was no economic transition. From this simulation, baseline Input-Output (IO) Tables are extracted for all EU countries and Switzerland until 2050.

 

Input-Output: how the Employment module is linked to others WPs?

The main challenge is to translate bottom-up sectoral inputs from WP1 to WP5 and from WP7 to a top-down representation of the economy. This is done in several steps:

  1. The baseline IO Tables are updated to account for the difference in GDP growth rate (WP1).
  2. The final demand is modified with the following inputs: energy demand (WP2); investment in retrofit (WP2); passengers’ activity and car sales (WP2); meat, crops and vegetables consumption (WP4); exports (WP7).
  3. The structure of intermediate consumption is modified with the following inputs: energy demand in services and transport (WP2), in industry (WP3), and in agriculture (WP4); electricity mix (WP5); investment in retrofit (WP2); freight transport activity and infrastructure spending (WP2); imports (WP7).
  4. The sectoral output and intermediate consumptions are calculated by balancing the IO Tables.

Finally, the employment is computed from the sectoral output using employment factors.

The inputs used from others WPs are described in more detail in the following table (xlsx – 14KB)

Data & Assumptions

The model is calibrated using the GTAP 9 – Power Database (Peters, 2016). The economy is represented by 39 sectors detailed in the following table:

Industrial classification in the Employment Module

Employment module Sectors GTAP 9 Correspondence[1]
01 Crops and Vegetables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
02 Animal Products 9, 10, 11, 12, 14
03 Forestry 13
04 Coal 15
05 Crude Oil 16
06 Petroleum Products 32
07 Gas 17
08 Mining 18
09 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 43
10 Nuclear Base Load 43
11 Coal Base Load 43
12 Gas Base Load 43
13 Wind Base Load 43
14 Hydro Base Load 43
15 Oil Base Load 43
16 Other Base Load 43
17 Gas Peak 43
18 Hydro Peak 43
19 Oil Peak 43
20 Solar Peak 43
21 Gas, Hot Water and Steam 44
22 Water 45
23 Construction 46
24 Land Transport: Rail 48
25 Land Transport: Road 48
26 Water Transport 49
27 Air Transport 50
28 Iron and Steal 35
29 Chemicals 33
30 Non-ferrous metal 36, 37
31 Non-metallic minerals 34
32 Paper, Pulp, Printing 31
33 Processed Animal Food 19, 20, 22
34 Processed Crops and Vegetables, Beverages 21, 23, 24, 25, 26
35 Textile and Leather 27, 28, 29
36 Timber 30
37 Transport Machinery 38, 39
38 Other Industrial 40, 41, 42
39 Services 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57

[1] Description of GTAP 9 Sectors:  https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v9/v9_sectors.asp

 

Baseline

The baseline scenario was defined in WP7 and is detailed in Deliverable 7.1 (Available soon).

The assumptions on economic growth and energy prices are derived from the EU Reference Scenario 2016 (European Commission 2016). Assumptions on population are based on the recent joint work of the Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission (DG ECFIN) published in 2015 (European Commission 2015).

Implementation

 

Timeline

The Employment module timeline is summarised in the figure below and highlights key milestones and expected outcomes.

 

References

European Commission 2015, The 2015 Ageing Report Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States, European Economy 3.

European Commission 2016, EU Reference Scenario 2016, Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions trends to 2050.

Peters, J.C. (2016), The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base. Journal of Global Economic Analysis 1:209-250

Contact point

For questions about the employment module please contact Boris Thurm boris.thurm@epfl.ch